Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

Platform comparison

Market context

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz would need to recover to a 7-day average of at least 60 reported ship calls by 31 May for this market to resolve yes. That is still well below normal pre-conflict levels: IMF Portwatch data and recent reporting suggest transits have been running at less than 10% of typical traffic since the regional security deterioration, with USNI reporting on 1 May that conditions were the weakest since Operation Epic Fury began. On Kalshi, the same contract has been trading around the mid-40s to mid-50s for later months, but the end-May version prices a much tighter time horizon; on Betfair or Smarkets, the comparison is usually easier in decimal odds than in implied probability, though fees and access differ materially. Kalshi also remains more limited on KYC and geographic reach than Betfair or Smarkets.

For the market to go yes, the key issue is not a one-day spike but a sustained IMF Portwatch average above the threshold, which means any brief rebound in individual sailings is unlikely to be enough. Watch for changes in war-risk conditions, escort or routing advisories, and any easing in regional military posture; these can alter insurance costs and commercial willingness to transit. The recent USNI report noted traffic at the lowest level since the conflict escalation, implying that a late-May recovery would require a sharp operational shift rather than a normal seasonal improvement. If shipping flows remain depressed into month-end, the 5% implied chance on this contract looks consistent with how quickly a 7-day average can fail to clear the bar before settlement.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

We read Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live quote comes directly from the Polygon order book; the other three are listed with their platform attributes — fees, KYC, settlement currency, payment options — because a 1:1 contract comparison without API access would be guesswork.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). PolyGram routes every trade directly into Polymarket's on-chain settlement, which is why payouts land fastest.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.