"Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Paramount Pictures will release the seventh instalment of the Scary Movie franchise on 6 June 2026, with opening weekend box office performance measured across the 5–7 June period. The 0% implied probability on Polymarket reflects either minimal trading activity or genuine scepticism about the film's commercial viability. Kalshi and Betfair typically show wider participation on established franchises, though decimal odds formats on those platforms can obscure low-probability outcomes differently than Polymarket's percentage display. The Numbers database, which will serve as the settlement source, has tracked opening weekends for all previous Scary Movie releases with precision, providing traders a reliable historical baseline.

The original Scary Movie (2000) opened to $42.3 million domestically; subsequent sequels declined steadily, with Scary Movie 5 (2013) managing only $15.1 million. Horror-comedy hybrids have struggled in recent years relative to pure horror or pure comedy, and franchise fatigue compounds the challenge for a seventh entry arriving after a thirteen-year gap. Comparable recent horror-comedy revivals—such as Happy Death Day (2017) at $26 million—suggest mid-range outcomes remain plausible if marketing gains traction.

Traders should monitor Paramount's marketing spend announcements and social media engagement metrics in May 2026, as these typically correlate with opening weekend performance. Critical reception from early screenings will surface by late May and may shift sentiment sharply. Competing releases that weekend and broader summer box office trends will also matter; a crowded marketplace could suppress Scary Movie's take. The settlement window closes 8 June at 12:00 UTC, allowing final box office figures to crystallise before resolution.

Methodology

We read "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live quote comes directly from the Polygon order book; the other three are listed with their platform attributes — fees, KYC, settlement currency, payment options — because a 1:1 contract comparison without API access would be guesswork.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.