How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of May 11?

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Market context

The Strait of Hormuz was still a heavily disrupted shipping lane in the week beginning 11 May, with vessel counts far below normal after the wider crisis that followed the March closure. Recent monitoring and reporting suggest only a handful of transits some days, not the usual traffic of roughly 60 ships daily, while large numbers of vessels remained queued inside and outside the Gulf. That makes the market’s low 18% crowd-implied YES consistent with a scenario where IMF Portwatch records only a small weekly total, especially if commercial operators continue to avoid the route.

For comparison, previous Hormuz shutdown or near-shutdown episodes tend to reprice quickly when insurers, liner schedules and terminal operators pull back together. CSIS notes the strait carries about a quarter of global oil flows, so even brief easing can lead to a burst of delayed movements; conversely, once shipowners have rerouted, traffic can remain depressed even after headlines improve. On Polymarket the 18% figure is an implied probability, while on Betfair or Smarkets the same view would usually be expressed as decimal odds and then reduced by commission, with KYC and access rules varying by venue.

The key catalysts are not just military or diplomatic headlines but operational changes: whether shipping firms restart Gulf rotations, whether the East-West Pipeline or other export alternatives absorb more cargo, and whether port and insurance notices encourage vessels to enter the strait. The most useful comparison point is the daily IMF Portwatch count, because the market settles on reported transit calls only; if several backlogged tankers or bulkers begin moving through in sequence, the weekly total can rise quickly despite continued risk. Recent reports of only a few transits on some May days underline how sensitive the outcome is to even modest resumption.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4

Methodology

This page compares How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of May 11? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book; the other venues' contract details are maintained manually because their APIs aren't directly comparable. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). PolyGram routes every trade directly into Polymarket's on-chain settlement, which is why payouts land fastest.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.