Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Platform comparison

Market context

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is still far below normal, with shipping data in early May showing commercial transits at less than 10% of pre-conflict levels. That context matters for a 34% YES price: the market is not asking whether flows improve a little, but whether IMF Portwatch’s 7-day average reaches 60 arrivals on any day before month-end. On Kalshi, the same event is quoted in percentage terms; on Polymarket, the crowd price can be compared directly with implied probability, while on venues such as Betfair or Smarkets the same view would usually be expressed as decimal odds, with the effective price altered by fees and whether the user is fully KYC-cleared.

Comparable episodes in the region have tended to resolve on logistics rather than rhetoric. In late April, markets briefly improved after reports that Iran had floated a proposal to reopen the strait, but shipping through Hormuz was still described as near-complete halt and the tanker market timeline was pushed out to at least September in one USNI assessment. That suggests the path from diplomatic signals to a 60-call 7-day average is slow, because the benchmark includes container, bulk, Ro-Ro, general cargo and tankers, not just crude carriers.

The key catalysts are any ceasefire, escort, or verification announcements that materially change ship-owner behaviour, plus the timing of carrier restarts and port rotation schedules. Traders will also watch whether IMF Portwatch’s moving average turns on a small number of missing reports, since only published traffic counts. If flows recover unevenly, the market can stay below threshold even after headlines look better.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4

Methodology

We read Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live quote comes directly from the Polygon order book; the other three are listed with their platform attributes — fees, KYC, settlement currency, payment options — because a 1:1 contract comparison without API access would be guesswork.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.