Iran ceasefire continues through?

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Market context

The US-Iran ceasefire is still in place, and the market is pricing in a very low chance of a renewed US strike before the resolution date. That 98% Yes implies traders think the ceasefire has already moved from a temporary truce to a durable status quo, despite the fact that the deal was originally framed as fragile and contingent on further talks and access through the Strait of Hormuz. In practice, the market is asking whether there is any credible path to an officially confirmed kinetic action on Iranian soil; absent a fresh escalation, the default outcome is continuity.

Comparable ceasefire markets tend to stay heavily skewed once the first wave of relief has passed. The early-April reaction to the truce saw equities rebound and crude fall, with IG noting that Asian indices recovered sharply and that many major markets had regained roughly half of war-time losses. That is the sort of headline-driven repricing that tends to lock in a high “Yes” probability on Polymarket, where the price is shown as an implied probability; on Kalshi and Betfair, traders often see similar sentiment expressed differently through decimal-style pricing and exchange fees, while Smarkets usually offers lower commission but a more limited US reach. KYC and jurisdiction still matter: access can differ materially between these venues even when the headline probability looks the same.

For the next leg, traders should watch for any official White House or Pentagon statement, as well as credible wire reporting on Israeli-Iranian spillover that could pull the US back in. The most important dependency is whether there is any public confirmation of a US kinetic strike on Iranian territory, since the contract’s resolution test turns on that specific trigger and the reporting window is short. Recent coverage from IG and other outlets has emphasised that the ceasefire remains temporary and that the talks behind it are incomplete, but with the current price near certainty, the market is effectively saying only an explicit reversal or verified strike would change the outcome.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares Iran ceasefire continues through? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book; the other venues' contract details are maintained manually because their APIs aren't directly comparable. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.