US-Iran deal text released by 2026?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 14 June 2026, the United States and Iran jointly announced a written diplomatic agreement, with a formal signing ceremony scheduled for 19 June. The core question for traders is whether the substantive text of this accord will reach public circulation before the 1 July 2026 deadline. The 90% implied probability across major platforms reflects confidence that at least partial disclosure will occur, though the definition of "widely available" creates interpretive boundaries that differ subtly between venues. Kalshi's binary settlement framework demands explicit threshold-crossing evidence, whilst Polymarket's resolution criteria emphasise credible reporting of successor versions, potentially capturing modified drafts released through official channels or leaked documents authenticated by mainstream outlets.

Historical precedent suggests mixed outcomes for Iran nuclear diplomacy. The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) text was published in full by the UN and participating governments within weeks of finalisation in July 2015, establishing a baseline expectation for transparency. However, supplementary technical annexes and confidential side agreements remained restricted for extended periods. The Trump administration's 2018 withdrawal and subsequent negotiations produced fragmented disclosure patterns, with key details emerging piecemeal through congressional testimony and Freedom of Information Act requests rather than coordinated release.

Traders should monitor official State Department and Iranian Foreign Ministry statements for publication timelines, congressional notification requirements under the Case-Zablocki Act, and potential legislative pressure for full transparency. Reuters and AP reporting on signing ceremony details will signal whether negotiators intend immediate disclosure or phased release. The distinction matters: Smarkets and Betfair's decimal-odds formats may price differently if ambiguity emerges around partial versus comprehensive text availability, particularly if redacted versions circulate first.

Methodology

We read US-Iran deal text released by 2026? from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live quote comes directly from the Polygon order book; the other three are listed with their platform attributes — fees, KYC, settlement currency, payment options — because a 1:1 contract comparison without API access would be guesswork.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Alternative is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Alternative?

Zero. Polymarket Alternative routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.