Masoud Pezeshkian out by 2026?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Masoud Pezeshkian, Iran's president since August 2023, faces removal or resignation before the end of 2026. The 43% implied probability reflects genuine structural vulnerability: Iranian presidents operate within a system where the Supreme Leader holds ultimate authority, the Guardian Council can disqualify candidates, and parliamentary opposition can mount pressure through budgetary or legislative means. Pezeshkian's reformist positioning and attempts at nuclear diplomacy have already generated friction with hardline factions, whilst economic conditions remain strained by sanctions and domestic inflation.

Historical precedent matters here. Mohammad Khatami served two full terms (1997–2005) despite reform efforts; Mahmoud Ahmadinejad completed his tenure despite international isolation. However, Ali Khamenei has shown willingness to constrain or sideline presidents who lose factional support—Ebrahim Raisi's sudden death in a helicopter crash in May 2024 removed a successor-in-waiting and created succession uncertainty. Pezeshkian's lack of a military or Revolutionary Guard power base, unlike his predecessors, leaves him more exposed to institutional pressure. The 43% probability suggests traders see meaningful but not overwhelming risk of departure within 24 months.

Watch for parliamentary elections scheduled for spring 2025, which could shift the balance of hardline versus reformist representation and directly affect Pezeshkian's legislative capacity. Announcements regarding nuclear negotiations, sanctions relief, or internal security crackdowns will signal whether he retains Supreme Leader backing. Kalshi and Betfair typically offer tighter spreads on geopolitical events than Polymarket, whilst Smarkets' commission structure rewards high-volume traders on longer-dated positions like this one. The settlement rule's immediate-resolution clause on announcement (rather than effective date) creates arbitrage opportunities across platforms if resignation is announced but delayed.

Methodology

This page compares Masoud Pezeshkian out by 2026? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book; the other venues' contract details are maintained manually because their APIs aren't directly comparable. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Alternative?

Zero. Polymarket Alternative routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.