Haiti vs. Scotland

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Haiti and Scotland will meet in the group stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup on 13 June. The 63% implied probability on Polymarket reflects a significant favourite position for Scotland, though the decimal odds conversion (approximately 1.59) differs from how Kalshi and Betfair express the same probability, with Smarkets typically matching Polymarket's fractional representation. Fee structures across platforms diverge notably: Polymarket charges a 2% maker fee and variable taker fees, whilst Betfair's commission model applies post-settlement, and Kalshi's fixed-fee structure appeals to traders seeking cost predictability on binary outcomes. Geographic reach also fragments the market—Kalshi's US-focused KYC requirements exclude many international traders who access Polymarket or Smarkets without equivalent restrictions, potentially creating pricing discrepancies across venues.

Scotland's ranking (currently 37th in FIFA standings) and Haiti's position (147th) provide historical context for the probability skew. Scotland qualified for the 2022 World Cup but exited in the group stage; Haiti failed to qualify for 2022 and has not reached a World Cup knockout round since 1974. Head-to-head records favour Scotland decisively, though World Cup group-stage outcomes remain volatile—recent tournaments have seen lower-ranked sides secure draws or upsets against established nations, particularly when facing teams managing qualification pressure.

Traders should monitor squad announcements and injury updates through late May 2026, as both nations finalise rosters. Scotland's domestic league (Scottish Premiership) concludes in early May, affecting player fitness and form assessments. Haiti's preparation pathway through CONCACAF qualifying provides limited exposure to elite opposition, a factor reflected in the current odds but subject to revision if either team's pre-tournament friendlies yield unexpected results.

Methodology

This page compares Haiti vs. Scotland specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book; the other venues' contract details are maintained manually because their APIs aren't directly comparable. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). Polymarket Alternative routes every trade directly into Polymarket's on-chain settlement, which is why payouts land fastest.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Alternative?

Zero. Polymarket Alternative routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Alternative triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.