Tunisia vs. Netherlands - Exact Score

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 25 June 2026 at Kansas City Stadium, Tunisia and the Netherlands will meet in their final Group F fixture of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, with the match concluding after 90 minutes of regulation plus stoppage time. The Netherlands, sitting atop the group with a 1–1–0 record, face a Tunisia side that has lost both prior matches, including a 4–0 defeat to Japan and a 5–1 loss to Sweden. Platforms diverge sharply on how this 9% implied probability for an exact score is presented: Polymarket and Betfair often display decimal odds (roughly 11.11), while Kalshi and Smarkets emphasise implied probability percentages, and fee structures vary from zero on Polymarket to 2–5% on Kalshi, with KYC requirements stricter on regulated US books like Kalshi compared to offshore alternatives.

Historically, exact-score markets in World Cup group stages rarely exceed 10% unless one team is a dominant favourite; comparable cases include the 2018 match where France beat Peru 1–0, which carried a similar 8–9% probability for that precise outcome. The Netherlands’ previous three encounters with Tunisia in friendlies yielded two wins and one draw, but those were low-stakes games; the current 9% figure reflects Tunisia’s defensive frailty and the Dutch need to secure top spot, yet it remains a long shot given the unpredictability of knockout-style pressure in group finales.

Traders should monitor pre-match line-ups and any late tactical shifts from Netherlands coach Ronald Koeman and Tunisia’s Hervé Renard, who has vowed a revival despite Tunisia’s poor form. A recent match preview on FIFA’s official channel notes Renard’s focus on midfield stability, while Fox Sports confirms the broadcast schedule and live streaming availability on FOX One. Any injury news to key Dutch attackers like Gakpo or Undav, or Tunisia’s defensive adjustments, could shift the exact-score probability, though no major squad updates have been announced as of 3 PM UTC today.

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Methodology

We read Tunisia vs. Netherlands - Exact Score from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live quote comes directly from the Polygon order book; the other three are listed with their platform attributes — fees, KYC, settlement currency, payment options — because a 1:1 contract comparison without API access would be guesswork.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). Polymarket Alternative routes every trade directly into Polymarket's on-chain settlement, which is why payouts land fastest.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Alternative is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.