Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Alternative) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
67% | 33% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
67% | 33% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 67% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 64% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 59% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 56% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 55% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 53% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 51% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: T1 (-3.5) vs Team Secret (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: T1 (-3.5) vs Team Secret (+3.5) | 49% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: T1 (-3.5) vs Team Secret (+3.5) | 48% |
| Map Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Team Secret (+1.5) | 47% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 45% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: T1 (-4.5) vs Team Secret (+4.5) | 45% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: T1 (-4.5) vs Team Secret (+4.5) | 44% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 44% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: T1 (-4.5) vs Team Secret (+4.5) | 44% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 41% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 36% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 34% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 33% |
| Map 1 Winner | 28% |
| Map 2 Winner | 28% |
| Match Winner | 25% |
Market context
Market consensus: 67% chance of valorant: team secret vs t1 (bo3) - vct pacific group omega. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the Valorant match between Team Secret and T1 in the VCT Pacific Group Omega, initially scheduled for July 25 at 7:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Team…
Methodology
We read Valorant: Team Secret vs T1 (BO3) - VCT Pacific Group Omega from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.
Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.
FAQ
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Polymarket Alternative has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Polymarket Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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