Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Alternative) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-2.5) vs Pcific Esports (+2.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Pcific Esports (-2.5) vs Gentle Mates (+2.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 15.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-3.5) vs Pcific Esports (+3.5) | 90% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-4.5) vs Pcific Esports (+4.5) | 90% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Pcific Esports (-6.5) vs Gentle Mates (+6.5) | 90% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Pcific Esports (-7.5) vs Gentle Mates (+7.5) | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 17.5 | 90% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-7.5) vs Pcific Esports (+7.5) | 65% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Pcific Esports (-3.5) vs Gentle Mates (+3.5) | 53% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Pcific Esports (-4.5) vs Gentle Mates (+4.5) | 53% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Pcific Esports (-5.5) vs Gentle Mates (+5.5) | 51% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-5.5) vs Pcific Esports (+5.5) | 51% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 15.5 | 51% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-3.5) vs Pcific Esports (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-2.5) vs Pcific Esports (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-4.5) vs Pcific Esports (+4.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-5.5) vs Pcific Esports (+5.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-6.5) vs Pcific Esports (+6.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-7.5) vs Pcific Esports (+7.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 17.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 10% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 10% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Pcific Esports (-8.5) vs Gentle Mates (+8.5) | 10% |
| Match Winner | 7% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-3.5) vs Pcific Esports (+3.5) | 1% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 1% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 1% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-2.5) vs Pcific Esports (+2.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-4.5) vs Pcific Esports (+4.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-5.5) vs Pcific Esports (+5.5) | 1% |
| Map 2 Winner | 0% |
| Map Handicap: M8 (-1.5) vs Pcific Esports (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 0% |
| Map Handicap: PCFIC (-1.5) vs Gentle Mates (+1.5) | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, valorant: pcific esports vs gentle mates (bo3) - vct emea group alpha stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the Valorant match between Pcific Esports and Gentle Mates in the VCT EMEA Group Alpha, initially scheduled for July 16 at 2:00PM ET. This market will resolv…
Methodology
We read Valorant: Pcific Esports vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Alpha from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
- Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Polymarket Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
Trade Valorant: Pcific Esports vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - VCT… on Polymarket Alternative
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