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LoL: MIBR.LOS vs LYON (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group D

Cross-platform snapshot for "LoL: MIBR.LOS vs LYON (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group D": deepest order book, lowest fee, geo-coverage at a glance.

Game 1 Winner 100% Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? 90% Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? 90% Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1? 75% Volume: $1.2M Liquidity: $653K Closes: 15 Jul 2026
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LoL: MIBR.LOS vs LYON (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group D

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Polymarket Alternative) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 100% 0% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Open the market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 100% 0% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Open the market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Open the market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Open the market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Open the market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Game 1 Winner100%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?90%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?90%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1?75%
O/U 2.5 Games72%
Any Player Quadra Kill51%
Game Handicap: MILO (-1.5) vs LYON (+1.5)50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Any Player Penta Kill50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Any Player Penta Kill50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Penta Kill50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
First Blood in Game 1?50%
First Blood in Game 2?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 2?50%
Match Winner45%
Total Kills Over/Under 36.5 in Game 1?39%
Game 2 Winner28%
Total Kills Over/Under 42.5 in Game 1?28%
Total Kills Over/Under 39.5 in Game 1?28%
Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 1?28%
Game Handicap: LY (-1.5) vs MIBR.LOS (+1.5)1%

Market context

LoL: MIBR.LOS vs LYON (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group D — current market-implied probability: 100%. This market refers to the LoL Lower bracket semifinal match between MIBR.LOS and LYON in the Esports World Cup Group D, initially scheduled for July 15 at 12:10PM ET. This market will resolve to "MIB…

Methodology

We read LoL: MIBR.LOS vs LYON (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group D from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.

FAQ

What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
What about Smarkets as an alternative?
Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
Are all these platforms regulated?
No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
Alex ChenAlex ChenPrediction Market AnalystandJordan LeeJordan LeeSports Prediction Reporter

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