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LoL: LOUD vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs

Polymarket vs Kalshi vs Betfair vs Smarkets for "LoL: LOUD vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs" — live odds, fees and KYC side-by-side.

Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 2? 100% Total Kills Over/Under 21.5 in Game 2? 100% Game Handicap: FUR (-1.5) vs LOUD (+1.5) 87% First Blood in Game 3? 72% Volume: $1.2M Liquidity: $1.2M Closes: 3 Oct 2026
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LoL: LOUD vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Polymarket Alternative) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 100% 0% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Open the market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 100% 0% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Open the market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Open the market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Open the market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Open the market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 2?100%
Total Kills Over/Under 21.5 in Game 2?100%
Game Handicap: FUR (-1.5) vs LOUD (+1.5)87%
First Blood in Game 3?72%
Game Handicap: FUR (-2.5) vs LOUD (+2.5)65%
Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 3?56%
Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 4?53%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Any Player Penta Kill50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Any Player Penta Kill50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Any Player Penta Kill50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Any Player Penta Kill50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Any Player Penta Kill50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
First Blood in Game 1?50%
First Blood in Game 4?50%
First Blood in Game 2?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 1?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 3?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 39.5 in Game 1?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 36.5 in Game 1?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 2?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3?50%
Game 4 Winner46%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 4?46%
O/U 3.5 Games37%
Game 3 Winner34%
O/U 4.5 Games17%
Match Winner8%
Game 1 Winner0%
Game 2 Winner0%
Game Handicap: LLL (-1.5) vs FURIA Esports (+1.5)0%
Game Handicap: LLL (-2.5) vs FURIA Esports (+2.5)0%

Market context

LoL: LOUD vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs — current market-implied probability: 100%. This market refers to the LoL Lower Bracket Final match between LOUD and FURIA Esports in the CBLOL Playoffs, initially scheduled for October 3, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to "LOUD…

Methodology

We read LoL: LOUD vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.

FAQ

Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
What about Smarkets as an alternative?
Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
Alex ChenAlex ChenPrediction Market AnalystandJordan LeeJordan LeeSports Prediction Reporter

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