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LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs

Which venue prices "LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs" best? Direct comparison of Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair and Smarkets.

O/U 3.5 Games 75% Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 4? 70% Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2? 70% Both Teams Slay a Dragon 68% Volume: $102K Liquidity: $427K Closes: 5 Sept 2026
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LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Polymarket Alternative) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 75% 25% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Open the market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 75% 25% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Open the market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Open the market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Open the market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Open the market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
O/U 3.5 Games75%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 4?70%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2?70%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon68%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 3?67%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon65%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon63%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?63%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor53%
Any Player Quadra Kill53%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor53%
Any Player Quadra Kill53%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3?53%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?53%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors52%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors52%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?52%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Any Player Penta Kill50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
First Blood in Game 1?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 4?50%
Game 4 Winner49%
First Blood in Game 2?49%
Game 2 Winner48%
Game 3 Winner48%
Game 1 Winner47%
Match Winner47%
Any Player Penta Kill47%
First Blood in Game 4?45%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon40%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon40%
First Blood in Game 3?37%
O/U 4.5 Games36%
Game Handicap: TES (-1.5) vs Invictus Gaming (+1.5)36%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors32%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors32%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors32%
Game Handicap: IG (-1.5) vs Top Esports (+1.5)31%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor29%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor28%
Any Player Quadra Kill28%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor28%
Any Player Quadra Kill28%
Any Player Quadra Kill21%
Game Handicap: TES (-2.5) vs Invictus Gaming (+2.5)15%
Any Player Penta Kill13%
Any Player Penta Kill13%
Any Player Penta Kill13%
Game Handicap: IG (-2.5) vs Top Esports (+2.5)13%

Market context

Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 75% probability to lol: invictus gaming vs top esports (bo5) - lpl playoffs. This market refers to the LoL Lower bracket round 1 match between Invictus Gaming and Top Esports in the LPL Playoffs, initially scheduled for September 5, 2026 at 2:00 AM ET. This market will resolv…

Methodology

This page compares LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.

FAQ

What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
What about Smarkets as an alternative?
Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
Are all these platforms regulated?
No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Polymarket Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
Alex ChenAlex ChenPrediction Market AnalystandJordan LeeJordan LeeSports Prediction Reporter

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