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Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - The International Group Stage

Which venue prices "Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - The International Group Stage" best? Direct comparison of Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair and Smarkets.

Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1? 74% Game 1 Winner 68% Match Winner 68% Game 2 Winner 65% Volume: $63K Liquidity: $114K Closes: 13 Aug 2026
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Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - The International Group Stage

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Polymarket Alternative) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
74% 26% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Open the market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
74% 26% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Open the market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Open the market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Open the market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Open the market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1?74%
Game 1 Winner68%
Match Winner68%
Game 2 Winner65%
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2?62%
Any Player Ultra Kill52%
Any Player Rampage52%
Ends in Daytime51%
Both Teams Beat Roshan51%
First Blood in Game 1?51%
Ends in Daytime50%
Ends in Daytime50%
Both Teams Destroy Barracks50%
First Blood in Game 2?50%
O/U 2.5 Games49%
Game Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Xtreme Gaming (+1.5)43%
Both Teams Beat Roshan34%
Both Teams Beat Roshan34%
Both Teams Destroy Barracks32%
Both Teams Destroy Barracks31%
Any Player Ultra Kill30%
Any Player Ultra Kill29%
Any Player Rampage13%
Any Player Rampage8%

Market context

Based on real-money crowd forecasting, dota 2: team spirit vs xtreme gaming (bo3) - the international group stage stands at 74% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the Dota 2 Round 1 match between Team Spirit and Xtreme Gaming in the The International Group Stage, initially scheduled for August 13 at 1:00AM ET. This mar…

Methodology

This page compares Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - The International Group Stage specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
What about Smarkets as an alternative?
Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
Which platform is accessible globally?
Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Polymarket Alternative has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
and

Trade Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - The Int… on Polymarket Alternative

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