Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

MOUZ meet Yellow Submarine in the upper-bracket first round of the Europe closed qualifier for The International, and the market’s **38%** crowd-implied probability on MOUZ points to a slight underdog position rather than a clear miss-price. That sits close to Kalshi’s listed **37%** chance on the same fixture, although Kalshi quotes the inverse side in cents rather than a direct probability, so the same view appears as **37¢/64¢** pricing rather than a single yes-percentage. [2]

For context, this kind of number is usually read against team-path rather than a single headline ranking: MOUZ have been used in recent qualifier coverage and live-score listings as the home team for the 08:00 UTC start, while Yellow Submarine are typically priced as a volatile regional side with enough upside to stay competitive in best-of-three play. Liquipedia’s recent match notes for Yellow Submarine show they have been active in closely fought series, which matters because BO3 qualifier formats often make lower seeds less predictable than in single-map markets. [1][6]

The main catalysts are straightforward: whether the match actually starts on schedule, whether the bracket timing changes, and whether the series is completed inside the settlement window. Hawk Live and Sofascore both listed the fixture for 08:00 UTC on 22 June, while Kalshi’s contract text shows the original 4:00am EDT timing and a later close date, which is relevant because delays or non-completion can change how a platform settles the market. [1][3][2] For traders comparing venues, the key differences are presentation and access: Polymarket-style markets usually show direct implied probabilities, while Kalshi and some sportsbook-style books quote prices in cents or decimal odds, and exchange products such as Betfair or Smarkets typically add commission while also varying by jurisdiction and KYC reach.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book; the other venues' contract details are maintained manually because their APIs aren't directly comparable. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Alternative?

Zero. Polymarket Alternative routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Alternative triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.