Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Alternative) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
93% | 7% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
93% | 7% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Match Winner | 93% |
| Map 2 Winner | 89% |
| Map 1 Winner | 84% |
| Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs OG (+1.5) | 71% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 66% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 65% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 65% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-6.5) vs OG (+6.5) | 48% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-6.5) vs OG (+6.5) | 45% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-6.5) vs OG (+6.5) | 40% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 39% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 37% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 26% |
Market context
The Counter-Strike: Spirit vs OG (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Qualifier prediction market currently prices this outcome at 93% YES. This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round of 32 match between Spirit and OG in the BLAST Bounty Qualifier, initially scheduled for July 23 at 1:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "Spirit" if S…
Methodology
We read Counter-Strike: Spirit vs OG (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Qualifier from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.
Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.
FAQ
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Polymarket Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
Trade Counter-Strike: Spirit vs OG (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Qu… on Polymarket Alternative
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