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Counter-Strike: Luminosity vs Spirit (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group A

Cross-platform snapshot for "Counter-Strike: Luminosity vs Spirit (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group A": deepest order book, lowest fee, geo-coverage at a glance.

Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 71% Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs Luminosity (+3.5) 63% Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Luminosity (+1.5) 62% Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs Luminosity (+3.5) 59% Volume: $85K Liquidity: $143K Closes: 13 Aug 2026
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Counter-Strike: Luminosity vs Spirit (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group A

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Polymarket Alternative) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
71% 29% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Open the market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
71% 29% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Open the market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Open the market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Open the market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Open the market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.571%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs Luminosity (+3.5)63%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Luminosity (+1.5)62%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs Luminosity (+3.5)59%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs Luminosity (+3.5)50%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.549%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.544%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.538%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-6.5) vs Luminosity (+6.5)36%
O/U 2.5 Games31%
Map 1 Winner24%
Map 2 Winner19%
Match Winner14%

Market context

Live Polymarket data shows 71% YES probability for Counter-Strike: Luminosity vs Spirit (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group A. This market refers to the Counter-Strike Lower bracket quarterfinal 1 match between Luminosity and Spirit in the Esports World Cup Group A, initially scheduled for August 13 at 10:00AM ET. This marke…

Methodology

We read Counter-Strike: Luminosity vs Spirit (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group A from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.

FAQ

What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
What about Smarkets as an alternative?
Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
Which platform is accessible globally?
Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Polymarket Alternative has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
Are all these platforms regulated?
No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
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