Will Anthropic’s valuation hit 2027 by December 31?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Anthropic would need its Nasdaq Private Market valuation to reach the listed threshold by 31 December 2026, using the daily NPM price rather than headline fundraising chatter. The current 13% yes price on Polymarket suggests a low base case, but it sits against a year of unusually fast repricing: Anthropic’s Series G in February 2026 was reported at $380 billion post-money, after earlier estimates around $350 billion, so the market is already debating how much upside remains before the year-end deadline.

Comparable private-company re-ratings in this segment tend to move in steps, not smoothly, which matters when comparing venues. On Polymarket, the market is quoted as a simple implied probability; on Kalshi it is usually shown as contract price against a $1 settlement; on Betfair and Smarkets, users are more likely to see decimal odds after exchange commission, with KYC and access varying by jurisdiction. That makes the same view look different across books even when the underlying event is identical.

The main catalysts are fresh financing terms, any secondary pricing captured by NPM, and the timing of trading-day publication. Bloomberg reported on 13 May that Anthropic was seeking more than $900 billion in fresh financing talks, which, if reflected in a completed round and then in NPM data before year-end, would change the shape of this market quickly. Traders also need to watch the publication lag: NPM prices are updated once daily for trading days, so a late-December transaction may not settle cleanly until early January if the relevant data are not published in time.

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Methodology

We read Will Anthropic’s valuation hit 2027 by December 31? from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live quote comes directly from the Polygon order book; the other three are listed with their platform attributes — fees, KYC, settlement currency, payment options — because a 1:1 contract comparison without API access would be guesswork.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). PolyGram routes every trade directly into Polymarket's on-chain settlement, which is why payouts land fastest.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.