How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

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Market context

The Federal Reserve will set the federal funds rate through 2026, and this market counts each 25 basis point reduction, including any emergency move outside scheduled meetings. The current crowd view around 70% implies traders think one or more cuts are still more likely than a full year on hold, but the market’s structure matters: Polymarket shows a binary share price, whereas Kalshi quotes contract prices in cents, Betfair uses decimal odds, and Smarkets takes commission rather than widening the price. That makes the same view look different across platforms even when the underlying expectation is similar. On Polymarket, the listed 70% is simply the current implied probability; on odds-based books, the equivalent would be a shorter decimal price after fees.

Recent comparable calls show how wide the range remains. Goldman Sachs has argued for cuts in March and June 2026 after a pause, taking rates towards 3.0%-3.25%, while iShares sees the Fed easing towards roughly 3% over the year, possibly after a pause early on. J.P. Morgan is notably more hawkish, expecting the Fed to hold through the rest of 2026. That split is useful context for reading the current probability: one camp sees the first half of the year as a pause, another expects modest easing only after Powell’s chairmanship ends in May, and a third sees no cuts at all.

The main catalysts are the FOMC schedule, the inflation and labour data released before each meeting, and any change in the chair transition after Jerome Powell’s term as chair ends in May 2026. The Fed’s March minutes showed the target range unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, reinforcing that policy is still on hold for now, while recent reporting from Charles Schwab noted a hawkish split at the latest meeting and markets pricing very little chance of an imminent cut. For traders comparing venues, fee and access differences still matter: Polymarket and Kalshi are both event-driven, but KYC eligibility, US access, and market-making depth can vary, while Betfair and Smarkets may reflect the same macro view through different liquidity and commission structures.

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Methodology

This page compares How many Fed rate cuts in 2026? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book; the other venues' contract details are maintained manually because their APIs aren't directly comparable. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.