What price will Bitcoin hit on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Bitcoin is trading into a 31 July expiry with the market now pricing the higher bands as the more relevant comparison, even though this contract’s crowd-implied probability on the listed YES outcome is still 0%. On Polymarket, these price-range events are quoted as probabilities, so a 0% read can coexist with active trading if liquidity has thinned or the market has moved into a narrower slice of outcomes; on Kalshi the same idea is usually expressed in cents per contract, while Betfair and Smarkets show decimal odds, which makes platform-to-platform comparisons less direct once fees and tick size are factored in. Polymarket also sits outside the KYC-heavy retail rails used by many regulated books, whereas Betfair and Smarkets generally require fuller account checks and operate with different commission or fee models, which can change the all-in price for the same view.

The closest comparable framing comes from market expectations that place Bitcoin’s late-July range in the low-to-mid $60,000s rather than in the far-bearish tail. Recent prediction summaries from broker and data sites have clustered around roughly $56,000-$63,000 for month-end trading, with some models lifting targets above $64,000 and others warning that a break below support near $55,000 would open lower levels.[6][8][10][14] For this specific expiry, traders should watch the US Federal Reserve schedule, ETF flow headlines, and any sharp move through nearby technical levels, because those are the dependencies most likely to reset where the final print lands before settlement.[6][8]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares What price will Bitcoin hit on July 31? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?

Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.

Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?

Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.

What about Smarkets as an alternative?

Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.

Which platform is accessible globally?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Polymarket Alternative has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.

Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?

Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Polymarket Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.