What price will Bitcoin hit on May 31?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Bitcoin's price on 31 May 2026 will settle based on the spot price at a specified time, likely UTC close. The 0% crowd probability across major platforms suggests either extreme confidence in a specific price band falling outside the settlement range, or minimal liquidity and participation in this particular contract. Polymarket's AMM-based pricing and Kalshi's order-book model handle low-volume edge cases differently: Kalshi typically requires tighter spreads and explicit backing, whilst Polymarket's liquidity pools can show wider bid-ask gaps on niche outcomes. Betfair and Smarkets, both exchange-based, rely on peer-to-peer matching and thus show no synthetic probability when no traders have committed capital. The settlement window closing June 1, 2026 gives roughly 18 months of price discovery, a timeframe that encompasses multiple Federal Reserve policy cycles and potential Bitcoin spot-ETF maturation in major markets.

Historical Bitcoin price movements over 18-month windows show annualised volatility between 60% and 120%, meaning a £20,000 starting point could plausibly reach £12,000 or £35,000 by May 2026 under normal market conditions. The 0% reading likely reflects either a market-specific settlement price definition (e.g., a particular exchange's 4 p.m. UTC close) that traders view as unlikely to hit a particular strike, or genuine absence of speculative interest at current odds. Traders should monitor Federal Reserve interest-rate expectations, macroeconomic recession signals, and regulatory announcements from the SEC regarding spot-Bitcoin derivatives expansion. Recent Bitcoin halving cycles (most recently April 2024) have historically preceded 12–24 month bull phases, though correlation is not causation. Comparing fee structures: Polymarket charges 2% on winnings, Kalshi 5% on profits, whilst Betfair and Smarkets charge commission on net winnings at variable rates depending on market liquidity.

Methodology

This page compares What price will Bitcoin hit on May 31? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book; the other venues' contract details are maintained manually because their APIs aren't directly comparable. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Alternative triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.