MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by 2025?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

MicroStrategy would need to dispose of some of its Bitcoin holdings before the 31 December 2025 deadline for this market to resolve “Yes”. The crowd-implied probability is 0%, but that should be read cautiously: on Polymarket a zero-implied price often reflects thin trading rather than certainty, whereas Kalshi and Betfair may surface the same view through different odds formats and fee structures, and access can be constrained by jurisdiction and KYC. Strategy’s published buying cadence matters because the firm has repeatedly used equity and debt issuance to add to Bitcoin rather than trim it, and as of early February 2026 it reported 714,644 BTC at an average cost of $76,056 per coin.

The nearest comparable cases are not routine treasury sales, but stress periods when leveraged crypto exposure came under pressure. Markets have tended to treat Strategy as a highly geared Bitcoin vehicle, so the key question is less “would it ever sell?” than “what would force a change in financing or treasury policy?”. Reporting from CryptoBriefing in February 2026 highlighted expectations of further purchases, not disposals, while Strategy’s own purchase disclosures remain the main signal for whether management is still adding to reserves or pausing.

Traders should watch quarterly earnings, 8-K filings, and the company’s Bitcoin purchase updates for any change in language around liquidity, covenants, or capital raising. A sale would be more plausible if Bitcoin were to fall sharply, if refinancing conditions tightened, or if management chose to rebalance the balance sheet after fair-value accounting increases reported earnings volatility. On Kalshi, the event may be easier to price in decimal odds; on Betfair or Smarkets, commission and market depth can make a very low-probability contract look different even when the underlying view is the same.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by 2025? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book; the other venues' contract details are maintained manually because their APIs aren't directly comparable. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). PolyGram routes every trade directly into Polymarket's on-chain settlement, which is why payouts land fastest.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.