Bitcoin price on May 31?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Bitcoin's noon ET price on 31 May 2026 will be measured against Binance's 1-minute candle close for BTC/USDT, with settlement tied to that single data point. The 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a specific price band falling outside the YES range, or minimal trading activity on this particular date window. Across platforms, this market illustrates a key divergence: Polymarket displays implied probability directly, whilst Kalshi and Betfair present decimal odds that require conversion, and Smarkets sits between them. Fee structures matter here—Polymarket's 2% maker and taker fees on resolution apply uniformly, whereas Betfair's commission scales with volume, potentially favouring smaller positions on niche settlement dates like this one.

Historical Bitcoin price movements over comparable 18-month horizons show volatility clustering around macroeconomic events and Federal Reserve policy shifts. The 2021–2022 cycle saw swings exceeding $40,000 in annual ranges; 2023–2024 demonstrated tighter consolidation post-halving. Traders should monitor Federal Reserve rate decisions throughout 2025 and early 2026, alongside any major regulatory announcements from the SEC or CFTC regarding spot Bitcoin ETF frameworks. Recent institutional adoption announcements and corporate treasury allocations have historically moved intraday prices by 3–5%, though noon ET pricing on a specific Friday in May 2026 depends heavily on overnight Asian and European session momentum.

The resolution mechanism's tie to a single Binance candle introduces execution risk absent from volume-weighted or multi-exchange benchmarks. Traders comparing this market across platforms should verify whether Kalshi or Smarkets offer equivalent settlement definitions; divergence in data source or time specification can create arbitrage opportunities or trap positions at settlement.

Methodology

This page compares Bitcoin price on May 31? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book; the other venues' contract details are maintained manually because their APIs aren't directly comparable. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Alternative triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.