Bitcoin price on May 22?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Bitcoin will be priced off Binance’s 1-minute BTC/USDT close at 12:00 ET, so the key question is where spot trades at the noon candle rather than at the market’s settlement deadline later in the day. Polymarket’s contract is already at 0% YES, while Binance-linked reference levels around this date have been clustered in the mid-$76,000s: Fortune put BTC at $76,565 on 19 May, and Robinhood’s prediction market showed $76,500 or above trading near 99¢ for the same noon slot. That is broadly consistent with the current band on Binance’s own forecast page, which listed 22 May at about $76,885.

The main read-across is that this market is behaving more like a narrow spot-range call than a directional bet. On Polymarket, probabilities are shown directly, whereas Kalshi, Betfair and Smarkets typically quote decimal odds or exchange prices, so similar consensus can look less extreme there even when the implied chance is near-certain. Fee treatment also matters: Polymarket’s on-chain model has different wallet and chain frictions, while regulated books usually impose KYC and, depending on jurisdiction, tighter access. For a noon Binance close, traders should watch any late US macro data, crypto ETF flows, and any abrupt BTC moves on Asian session liquidity, since a small break before 12:00 ET can shift which bracket wins.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares Bitcoin price on May 22? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book; the other venues' contract details are maintained manually because their APIs aren't directly comparable. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.