Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Norwegian Nobel Committee will announce the 2026 Peace Prize on 9 October, with the ceremony due on 10 December in Oslo. The field is unusually broad: the Nobel Institute says 287 candidates were registered this year, comprising 208 individuals and 79 organisations. That scale matters for pricing, because a 9% crowd-implied probability in the market is still high enough to reflect a short list of plausible frontrunners, but low enough to leave room for surprise outcomes, joint awards, or a lesser-known institutional pick. On Kalshi, the same market is quoted in straight probabilities rather than decimal odds, while Betfair and Smarkets typically present back/lay prices and deduct exchange commission; the practical difference is that identical sentiment can look more or less attractive depending on fees, liquidity and whether the book accepts your account in the first place.

Recent shortlist chatter has centred on organisations and rights-linked nominees rather than one dominant individual. PRIO’s 2026 Nobel Peace Prize List includes Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms, the World Trade Organization, the Committee to Protect Journalists, and the International Court of Justice/International Criminal Court, while a February letter to the committee publicly nominated Jimmy Lai and several other Chinese democracy figures. Reuters also reported in January that Donald Trump was among nearly 300 nominees, but nomination alone has limited predictive value because the committee does not publish its longlist and routinely keeps deliberations secret. The key catalysts are the final committee meetings, any late media reporting on plausible frontrunners, and whether the eventual choice leans towards a single person, a joint award, or an organisation, since those paths tend to move odds differently across platforms with different settlement rules and market depth.

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Methodology

This page compares Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026 specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book; the other venues' contract details are maintained manually because their APIs aren't directly comparable. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.