Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Alternative) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
50% | 50% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
50% | 50% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| A | 50% |
| B | 50% |
| C | 50% |
| D | 50% |
| E | 50% |
| F | 50% |
| G | 50% |
| H | 50% |
| I | 50% |
| J | 50% |
| Other | 50% |
| Ben Shelton | 13% |
| Tallon Griekspoor | 8% |
| Frances Tiafoe | 7% |
| Brandon Nakashima | 7% |
| Tommy Paul | 6% |
| Jakub Mensik | 6% |
| Arthur Fils | 5% |
| Nuno Borges | 5% |
| Casper Ruud | 4% |
| Mariano Navone | 4% |
| Matteo Arnaldi | 4% |
| Cameron Norrie | 4% |
| Alex Michelsen | 4% |
| Alexei Popyrin | 4% |
| Hubert Hurkacz | 3% |
| Luciano Darderi | 2% |
| Arthur Rinderknech | 2% |
| Jannik Sinner | 0% |
| Alexander Zverev | 0% |
| Daniil Medvedev | 0% |
| Andrey Rublev | 0% |
| Grigor Dimitrov | 0% |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | 0% |
| Taylor Fritz | 0% |
| Ugo Humbert | 0% |
| Holger Rune | 0% |
| Felix Auger-Aliassime | 0% |
| Alejandro Tabilo | 0% |
| Karen Khachanov | 0% |
| Sebastian Korda | 0% |
| Nicolas Jarry | 0% |
| Alexander Bublik | 0% |
| Jack Draper | 0% |
| Gael Monfils | 0% |
| Adrian Mannarino | 0% |
| Jordan Thompson | 0% |
| Tomas Martin Etcheverry | 0% |
| Marcos Giron | 0% |
| Tomas Machac | 0% |
| Pedro Martinez | 0% |
| Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | 0% |
| Fabian Marozsan | 0% |
| Flavio Cobolli | 0% |
| Miomir Kecmanovic | 0% |
| Lorenzo Sonego | 0% |
| Roman Safiullin | 0% |
| Denis Shapovalov | 0% |
| Gabriel Diallo | 0% |
| Milos Raonic | 0% |
| Kei Nishikori | 0% |
| Vasek Pospisil | 0% |
| Pablo Carreno Busta | 0% |
| Dusan Lajovic | 0% |
| Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard | 0% |
| Corentin Moutet | 0% |
| Jaume Munar | 0% |
| Roberto Carballes Baena | 0% |
| Dominik Koepfer | 0% |
| Facundo Diaz Acosta | 0% |
| Max Purcell | 0% |
| Aleksandar Vukic | 0% |
| Marton Fucsovics | 0% |
| Hugo Gaston | 0% |
| Federico Coria | 0% |
| Sumit Nagal | 0% |
| Thiago Seyboth Wild | 0% |
| Rinky Hijikata | 0% |
| Christopher O'Connell | 0% |
| Daniel Altmaier | 0% |
Market context
ATP 1000 Montreal: Winner — current market-implied probability: 50%. This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 National Bank Open (ATP Masters 1000, Montreal), currently scheduled for August 2 – August 13, 2026. If this tournament is postponed after…
Methodology
We read ATP 1000 Montreal: Winner from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
- Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Polymarket Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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